Quantitative Risk Analysis

Posted in Procurement & logistics

ABOUT COURSE 

Project risk is defined as “…an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality”(Project Management Institute, 2013, p. 310).

The aim of project risk management is to identify and minimize the impact that risks have on a project. The challenge with risk management of any kind is that risks are uncertain events. In the management of projects, and the subsequent operations of the project's product, organizations attempt to reduce their exposure to these uncertain events through risk management. This is usually done through a formal management process which consists of the following steps: plan risk management, identify risks, perform qualitative risk analysis, perform quantitative risk analysis, plan risk responses, and control risks

Objectives:

Upon Completion of the course, you will be able to:

  • Build on your knowledge of qualitative hazard evaluation methods to discover when and how to quantify the results
  • Derive a clearer understanding of risks associated with your processes
  • Learn to distinguish between cost-effective and costly solutions for your facility's risk or reliability concerns
  • Gain a clear understanding of the most critical aspects of your processes
  • Learn to develop fault trees and event trees and also to solve fault trees quantitatively

WHO SHOULD ATTEND

Anyone in business, government and science with an interest in quantitative risk analysis

Such as professionals needing to perform quantitative risk analysis in areas including, but not limited to, finance, business development, economics, operations, engineering, six sigma, project risk analysis, marketing, epidemiology and microbiology.

Outline:

 DAY 1 

Introduction to risk analysis

  • Background of risk analysis and risk management
  • Risk analysis as a team effort
  • Going from data to knowledge to a useful decision tool
    • Dealing with the limits of current knowledge

Introduction to statistical descriptors

  • Mean, mode, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, percentiles

Introduction to probability theory

  • The use of distributions: uncertainty, variability and inter-individual variability
  • Probability concepts
  • Graphical representations of risk events: Venn diagrams, fault trees and event trees
  • A look at some simple probability distributions

 DAY 2 

Introduction to risk modelling

  • Monte Carlo simulation, ModelRisk and Excel
    • Brief tutorial on ModelRisk
  • Calculation vs. simulation - the pros and cons of Monte Carlo
  • Typical risk analysis results, their presentation and interpretation
  • Practical problems to solve
  • The most common probability distributions

 DAY 3

Stochastic processes - the basis of risk analysis

  • Binomial Process
    • Binomial, beta, negative binomial and geometric distributions
    • Imperfect tests, machine failures, risk events, etc.;
  • Poisson Process
    • Poisson, gamma, and exponential distributions
    • Modelling insurance claims, accidents, random outbreaks, etc.
  • Hypergeometric process
    • Hypergeometric and inverse Hypergeometric distributions
    • Survey results, prevalence estimate with imperfect diagnostic test, gambling etc.
  • Practical problems to solve

 DAY 4 

Good practices in risk modelling

 

Common mistakes and how to prevent them

 DAY 5 

Introduction to analyzing and using data for risk analysis

  • Statistical techniques
  • Why we need uncertainty distributions not confidence intervals in risk analysis
  • Creating uncertainty distributions with standard Classical Statistical tests
    • t-tests, z-tests, Chi-squared tests
    • Examples of estimation of population mean and standard deviation
  • The Bootstrap to include uncertainty
  • The use of Bayesian Statistics in risk analysis

Certificates

A Certificate of Completion will be issued to those who attend & successfully complete the programme.

Schedule

  08:30 – 10:15 First Session

 10:15 – 10:30 Coffee Break

10:30 – 12:15 Second Session

 12:15 – 12:30 Coffee Break

12:30 – 14:00 Third Session

 14:00 – 15:00 Lunch

 Fees

 The Fee for the seminar, including instruction materials, documentation, lunch, coffee/tea breaks & snack is: